This entry is the first of several from Jim Goering, who, with his wife Shirley, joined Water to Thrive in Ethiopia in June. In two multi-year postings in Ethiopia, first as an economic advisor from Harvard University and then as an official of the World Bank, Goering gained extensive experience in the country and brings this perspective to bear on Ethiopia’s economic and social situation as well as on the work of Water to Thrive. This overview entry will be followed in the next week by Jim’s look at the country’s water crisis, his recap of the group’s two-week trip, and by suggestions for Water to Thrive as it continues its work in the field.

 

It is useful to place the Ethiopian village water development initiative within a broader national context.

The Ethiopian economy has been one of the fastest growing in Africa, with annual GDP growth in the 8-9% range. Major factors contributing to the country’s economic growth are an aggressive infrastructural program, much of it financed and implemented by Chinese interests, and commercial agriculture, based on leasing of large tracts of land to foreign interests. The rise of commercial agriculture has raised concerns from the international community about displacement of existing farmers and herdsmen. (To the government’s credit, it recently permitted a review of this issue by the EU’s Development Assistance Group, which strongly suggested improvements based on greater involvement in the decision-making process by those likely to be negatively impacted by these investments.)

Economic factors of national concern include continued high national unemployment of about 15%, annual inflation in the 8% range, and the reality that about 40% of the country’s population remain below the poverty line—although significant improvement in this variable has been achieved in recent years.

Some progress can be reported in the lives of the Ethiopian people.  Female fertility rates have declined, although population growth remains relatively high at 2.9% per year (compared with 2.1% in neighboring Kenya) and infant mortality is high at 56 deaths for 1,000 live births (Kenya’s rate is 41/1,000). Rural incomes remain among the lowest in Africa, but recent gains have been registered and improved emphasis on agricultural production has greatly reduced the risk of serious food scarcity in rural areas.

In more negative terms, the combination of relatively rapid economic growth and continuing constraints on freedom of the press appear to be exacerbating the problem of corruption in government. While the international corruption assessment organization, Transparency International (www.transparency.org), recently ranked Ethiopia as the 110^th most corrupt country among the 175 assessed, my recent conversations with a few Ethiopians who seemed reasonably well-informed suggest that corruption is a growing problem in government and is putting further strains on the political and social fabric of the country.

One might also question the longer-term impact of the growing role of Chinese involvement in the Ethiopian economy. It is abundantly clear that Chinese finance and development skills (road construction, extension of the electrical grid, large-scale agriculture) have benefited significant numbers of the Ethiopian population. Less clear is the extent to which this approach is effectively transferring requisite technical and managerial skills to Ethiopians, and, perhaps more significantly over the longer term, the extent to which this approach is compromising Ethiopia’s national sovereignty.

Jim’s next post will provide a look at the water crisis in Ethiopia.

 

This entry is the first of several from Jim Goering, who, with his wife Shirley, joined Water to Thrive in Ethiopia in June. In two multi-year postings in Ethiopia, first as an economic advisor from Harvard University and then as an official of the World Bank, Goering gained extensive experience in the country and brings this perspective to bear on Ethiopia’s economic and social situation as well as on the work of Water to Thrive. This overview entry will be followed in the next week by Jim’s look at the country’s water crisis, his recap of the group’s two-week trip, and by suggestions for Water to Thrive as it continues its work in the field.

 

It is useful to place the Ethiopian village water development initiative within a broader national context.

The Ethiopian economy has been one of the fastest growing in Africa, with annual GDP growth in the 8-9% range. Major factors contributing to the country’s economic growth are an aggressive infrastructural program, much of it financed and implemented by Chinese interests, and commercial agriculture, based on leasing of large tracts of land to foreign interests. The rise of commercial agriculture has raised concerns from the international community about displacement of existing farmers and herdsmen. (To the government’s credit, it recently permitted a review of this issue by the EU’s Development Assistance Group, which strongly suggested improvements based on greater involvement in the decision-making process by those likely to be negatively impacted by these investments.)

Economic factors of national concern include continued high national unemployment of about 15%, annual inflation in the 8% range, and the reality that about 40% of the country’s population remain below the poverty line—although significant improvement in this variable has been achieved in recent years.

Some progress can be reported in the lives of the Ethiopian people.  Female fertility rates have declined, although population growth remains relatively high at 2.9% per year (compared with 2.1% in neighboring Kenya) and infant mortality is high at 56 deaths for 1,000 live births (Kenya’s rate is 41/1,000). Rural incomes remain among the lowest in Africa, but recent gains have been registered and improved emphasis on agricultural production has greatly reduced the risk of serious food scarcity in rural areas.

In more negative terms, the combination of relatively rapid economic growth and continuing constraints on freedom of the press appear to be exacerbating the problem of corruption in government. While the international corruption assessment organization, Transparency International (www.transparency.org), recently ranked Ethiopia as the 110^th most corrupt country among the 175 assessed, my recent conversations with a few Ethiopians who seemed reasonably well-informed suggest that corruption is a growing problem in government and is putting further strains on the political and social fabric of the country.

One might also question the longer-term impact of the growing role of Chinese involvement in the Ethiopian economy. It is abundantly clear that Chinese finance and development skills (road construction, extension of the electrical grid, large-scale agriculture) have benefited significant numbers of the Ethiopian population. Less clear is the extent to which this approach is effectively transferring requisite technical and managerial skills to Ethiopians, and, perhaps more significantly over the longer term, the extent to which this approach is compromising Ethiopia’s national sovereignty.

Jim’s next post will provide a look at the water crisis in Ethiopia.